COVID-19 KILLED YEAR OVER YEAR COMPS
Part 1: Every retail report presents data in a nearly identical way: TY LY % CHG +/- VOL. This traditional method of measuring business performance is useless in the face of COVID-19, and the hangover is going to continue through all of 2021. See the nearby chart which shows the Accelerated Index in two categories with TY and LY sales. If you are a VP sales in the DIY space you might be loving your commission checks this year but I’d stick at least half in your savings account because next year when quotas are set using the traditional X% increase from LY your going to have the hangover of a lifetime.
The crazy part for the DIY / home center space is that your sales would most likely be even higher if you could produce and ship all the product your retail partners want. Raise your hand if your filling full PO’s these days? The department store channel has the opposite problem. Sales TY are down 18% to 30% YTD vs LY and the recovery trajectory remains soft. So fast forward to next year when you are trying to set your sales goals using the tried and true X% increase from LY. That’s going to be rough.
So now what? Do we modify every retail report to discount TY/LY/%CHG? Do we come up with an alternative method to measure performance? I will publish Part 2 with recommendations in the coming days so keep an eye on our blog. In the meantime, add your comments below please.
Chad Symens | Founder and CEO
With nearly 20 years of leadership, technology and retail and supply chain analytics experience, Chad understands the challenges that both brands and retailers face in today’s ever-changing, omni-channel retail marketplace. In 2003, Chad started Accelerated Analytics, focusing on capturing and analyzing the wealth of information and unique story contained within POS data. Through his leadership, the company has become a leading provider of retail point of sale reporting and analysis services. Learn more about Chad Symens and the Accelerated Analytics team here.