July Retail Sales Rose More Than Forecast

Retail sales advanced 0.8% in July, the first gain in four months, according to a report released by the Commerce Department.  Sales were fueled by strength from the automobile sector, electronics and appliance outlets, and department stores.

The bigger than expected increase followed a 0.7% decline in June that was weaker than first reported.  Bloomberg had forecast a 0.3% rise in July.  The results have buoyed feelings overall that the economy may be improving, albeit at a moderate pace.

"We're looking for consumption to pick up," Credit Agreicole CIB chief economist Michael Carey told Bloomberg.  "There was improved consumer confidence in July plus job gains that were a little better than expected, which is certainly constructive for the household outlook."

Retail sales, which climbed the most since February, followed a quarter in which household spending grew at the slowest pace in a year.  Consumer purchases, about 70% of the economy, increased at a 1.5% annual rate from April to June.

All 13 major retail categories showed a gain last month, led by a 0.8% jump at auto dealers, a 0.9% rise at electronics and appliance outlets, and a 0.6% increase at department stores that was the most since September.

Spending increased 0.8% at clothing stores and 0.7% at general merchandise stores.  Health and personal care sales jumped 1.1%, the most since May 2011.

Industry data also showed that same-store sales at the more than 20 retailers tracked by Retail Metrics Inc. gained 4.4% in July, almost four times analysts' estimates, after only a 0.3% rise in June.

Sales excluding automobiles and service stations advanced 0.9%, the most since January.

Source:  retailingtoday.com

Consumer Confidence Index Increases After Four Consecutive Declines

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June, improved slightly in July.  The Index now stands at 65.9 (1985=100), up from 62.7 in June.  The Expectations Index improved to 79.1 from 73.4.  The Present Situation Index, however, decreased slightly to 46.2 from 46.6 a month ago.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: "Despite this month's improvement in confidence, the overall Index remains at historically low levels.  Consumers' attitude regarding current conditions was little changed in July, but their short-term expectations, which had declined last month, bounced back.  However, while consumers expressed greater optimism about short-term business and employment prospects,they have grown more pessimistic about their earnings.  Given the current economic environment - in particular the weak labor market - consumer confidence is not likely to gain any significant momentum in the coming months."

Consumers' appraisal of current conditions eased in July.  Those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 13.8 percent from 14.2 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" decreased to 34.2 percent from 35.9 percent.  Consumers' assessment of the labor market was also mixed.  Those stating jobs are "hard to get" declined to 40.8 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 7.8 percent from 8.3 percent.

On the other hand, consumers were generally more optimistic about the short-term outlook in July.  The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose to 18.9 percent from 16.0 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen decreased to 14.6 percent from 15.8 percent.  Consumers' outlook for the labor market was also more upeat in July.  Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 17.6 percent from 14.8 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged down to 20.3 percent from 20.8 percent.  The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes, however, declined to 14.2 percent from 15.3 percent.

Source: The Conference Board

Housing still hurting, but DIY looks good

Weak housing data notwithstanding, plenty of people spent money fixing up their homes this spring judging by the results of select retailers with exposure to the home improvement market.

Lumber Liquidators, operator of 277 specialty flooring stores, said its second-quarter sales increased nearly 20% to $210 million and same-store sales increased 12.4%. The company also saw a dramatic improvement in the profitability of those sales as gross margins expanded to 37.3% from 34% the prior year. Total profits more than doubled to $12.2 million, or 43 cents a share, compared with $5.3 million, or 19 cents a share the prior year.

Buoyed by a strong start to the first half of the year, the company increased its full year sales and profit forecast by a wide margin on the same day that the U.S. Commerce Department reported weaker-than-expected sales of new homes. Sales of new, single-family homes in June fell 8.4% to a seasonally adjusted 350,000 unit annual rate. That figure was below a Commerce Department estimate that put the May annual rate at 382,000. Government statistics also estimated there were 144,000 new homes for sale at the end of June, or nearly a five months supply of inventory at the current rate of sale.

The bleak news on the housing front didn’t deter Lumber Liquidators from increasing its full year sales target to a range of $750 million to $775 million, up from the previous range of $720 million to $750 million. The company also increased its full year profit forecast to a range of $1.30 to $1.42 compared to a prior range of $1.10 to $1.25.

“We believe Lumber Liquidators is successfully navigating through what remains a challenging and uncertain retail environment, particularly for large-ticket, discretionary purchases,” said Robert Lynch, president and CEO. “Our value proposition continues to resonate well with consumers, and as we look toward both the back half of the current year and into the next, we are confident in our ability to continue to drive traffic, improve our operations, expand our operating margin and grow our footprint.”

The company opened 14 new stores during the first half of the year and plans a total of 20 to 25 units for the full year.

Lumber Liquidators is benefitting from the repair and remodel trend as people stay in their homes and look to spruce up flooring. The same phenomenon is impacting the nations leading paint retailer, which reported stellar results last week. The Sherwin-Williams Company said sales during the quarter ended June 30 increased 14.6% to nearly $1.5 billion at the company’s 4,000 unit Paint Stores Group. Operating profit increased more than 29% to $267 million and same store sales increased 13.9% as the company was successful in raising prices to offset increased raw material costs.  “We are continuing to invest in our business. In the first six months, Paint Stores Group opened 20 net new locations. For the year, we expect our Paint Stores Group to open 60 to 65 new stores,” said Sherwin-Williams chairman and CEO Christopher Connor.

The strong results from Sherwin-Williams and Lumber Liquidators come as the National Association of the Remodeling Industry reports in its quarterly survey that remodelers expect to see stronger sales in the next three months. Part of their reason for optimism is due to pent up demand, but low interest rates are helping with financing as well. The remodelers surveyed by the trade group said they are seeing an increased number of inquiries, requests for bids and a higher conversion rate.

Source: retailingtoday.com

Discretionary spending down in June

U.S. retail sales declined during the month of June, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday.

U.S. retail and food services sales for the month, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $401.5 billion, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous month but 3.8% above the year-ago period. Retail trade sales were down 0.5% from last month but 3.5% above last year.

Looking across retail categories, adjusted sales at grocery stores during the month of April increased about 0.1% to roughly $47.06 billion. Health and personal care stores saw a slight decline to nearly $22.8 billion. Retail sales for drug stores and pharmacies were not recorded; however, sales experienced a slight drop from April to May (about $19.14 billion). General merchandise stores' sales decreased 0.2% seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and remained flat unadjusted year-over-year.

Commenting on the results, the National Retail Federation said there is "no doubt about it that consumers cooled off on discretionary spending this spring."

"While the retail industry remains confident in an incremental recovery, today’s statistics should concern every policy-maker in Washington, and compel them to revisit burdensome regulations and job-killing tax increases set to take effect early next year," NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said.

Added NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, "Weak economic numbers over the past few weeks have increased anxiety about the future direction of the economy. Today's data is discouraging but not demoralizing. If you look at the first half of the year overall, retail sales actually increased 4.6% year-over-year, indicating that the economy is improving, but maybe not quick enough to impact consumer spending and job growth."

Source: retailingtoday.com

Consumer sentiment improves for low and high income groups

While consumer confidence may be slightly down, retailers that cater to lower-income and higher-income consumers should be pleased with the most recent Consumer Reports Index, as those two groups showed the greatest improvement in consumer sentiment.

The Consumer Reports Index, an overall measure of Americans' personal financial health, saw a sharp improvement in its consumer sentiment measure, which jumped to its highest level since October 2008.

The rise in sentiment (53.1 from 47.5 the previous month) was broad-based, with significant gains among those Americans in households earning less than $50,000 (+5.5 pts) as well as more affluent households earning $100,000 or more (+7.7 pts).

"With more than half the country earning less than 50,000, any improvement among that group may have a significant impact on the economy. They still have some distance to climb, but these are positive signs," said Ed Farrell, director of consumer insight at the Consumer Reports National Research Center.

The improvement in consumers' mood was supported by a decline in financial difficulties, which reached the lowest level since first measured in April 2009. The Consumer Reports Index's Trouble Tracker, a gauge of financial difficulties faced by Americans in the past 30 days, dropped to 41.8, down from 46.5 last month.

After a five-month slide, the index's past 30-day retail measure moved upward this month to 9.9 from 8.9 a month earlier, but is virtually unchanged from a year ago (10.2). Planned purchasing over the next 30 days (8.6), reflecting intent to buy in July, was also up versus last month (7.0), but lags last year at this time (7.7).

"This positive start to the summer, with all measures moving in a favorable direction, indicates a better economic picture overall. Over the past four years, we have seen that gains can prove to be fragile. Holding and building on these improvements will depend most on continued job growth to ensure a durable gain in the consumer outlook," Farrell said.

Source: retailingtoday.com

Consumer Confidence Index Declines Again

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^®, which had declined in May, fell further in June. The Index now stands at 62.0 (1985=100), down from 64.4 in May. The Expectations Index declined to 72.3 from 77.3. The Present Situation Index, however, increased to 46.6 from 44.9 last month.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: "Consumer Confidence declined in June, the fourth consecutive moderate decline. Consumers were somewhat more positive about current conditions, but slightly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. Income expectations, which had improved last month, declined in June. If this trend continues, spending may be restrained in the short-term. The improvement in the Present Situation Index, coupled with a moderate softening in consumer expectations, suggests there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term."

Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved slightly in June. Those claiming business conditions are "good" increased to 14.9 percent from 13.6 percent, however, those saying business conditions are "bad" increased to 35.1 percent from 34.7 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was mixed. Those stating jobs are "hard to get" increased to 41.5 percent from 40.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" increased to 7.8 percent from 7.5 percent.

Consumers have grown less upbeat about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions to improve over the next six months declined to 15.5 percent from 16.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased to 16.2 percent from 12.9 percent. Consumers' outlook for the labor market was mixed. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead declined to 14.1 percent from 15.4 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs also declined to 20.6 percent from 21.5 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 14.8 percent from 15.7 percent.

Source:  The Conference Board

ShopperTrak: June 2012

Total U.S. shopper traffic in retail stores and malls for June 2012

Summer retail is heating up. June brought high temperatures and a steady stream of shoppers to stores across the nation. Retail foot traffic in June increased 5.2% compared with the previous month and 7% over the same period last year.  Retailers saw a peak mid-month as shoppers splurged on Dad for Father’s Day on June 17. Retailers also benefited from June containing the last Friday and Saturday leading up to the week of July 4. Shoppers capitalized on the mid-week holiday by starting vacations early or browsing for celebratory items on those days.

Shoppers in search of seasonal merchandise and a break from the heat found their way to retail stores – especially on weekends last month. And this June contained one more Saturday than last year.

Declining gasoline prices further ensured a steady stream of shoppers. ShopperTrak correlates lower gasoline prices to higher foot-traffic rates. When shoppers spend less money at the pump, data indicates they are more inclined to make car trips and visit more stores. Since gasoline prices dropped over the last five weeks, retailers reaped the benefits.

Year-over-year changes in foot traffic have been trending positively since President’s Day 2012, and the people counting company expects the pattern to continue through August if gas prices remain low. This trend may also translate into additional disposable income to spend during the back-to-school shopping season. 

Source: retailingtoday.com

Consumers to spend (almost) as much on dad

While dads usually don't get the same caliber of gift for Father's Day as moms do on Mother's Day, if the results of NRF's latest survey are to be believed, dads should be pretty pleased with what they receive this year.

According to NRF’s 2012 Father’s Day spending survey conducted by BIGinsight, the average person will shell out $117.14 on dad’s gifts this year, up 10% from $106.49 last year and closing the gap between its biggest competitor: Mother’s Day (consumers planned to spend an average of $152 on the holiday). Total spending for Father’s Day is expected to reach $12.7 billion.

“He may not ever expect the ‘royal treatment’ on Father’s Day, but this year dad doesn’t have much of a say as it’s evident his loved ones want to make sure he has a great day,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “For those looking for the perfect gift idea, retailers will have specials on everything from patio sets and grills to ties and gardening tools in the weeks leading up to the holiday.”

With a plethora of options to choose from, consumers plan to splurge on a variety of gifts. According to the survey, more people this year will treat dad to a special outing, such as golfing, eating out or heading to a sporting event ($2.3 billion vs. $2 billion in 2011).  They will also invest in electronic gift items ($1.7 billion vs. $1.3 billion last year) and apparel ($1.7 billion vs. $1.4 billion in 2011). Others will splurge on gift cards ($1.7 billion), sporting goods ($641 million) and books or music ($645 million).

When it comes to the number of men people plan to buy for this Father’s Day, the survey found consumers are likely to consider a variety of “types” of dads this year. Most people will buy for their father or stepfather (53.9% vs. 50.3% in 2011) and their husband (29.2% vs. 26.1% last year). Others will treat their son (9.7%), grandfather (5.3%), brother (6.8%) and friend (5.7%) to something nice.

Mobile shoppers will be out and about these next few weeks as they seek the perfect gift for dad. More than one-quarter of those who own a tablet (25.2%) say they will use their tablet to make a Father’s Day purchase. Overall, more than half (54.6%) of tablet owners will use their device to research products and compare prices, redeem coupons and look up retailers’ information such as store hours and location.

Not surprising, the majority of smartphone owners will use their smartphone to research gift ideas and compare prices (26.7%), but others will look up store hours and location information (18.9%) and use apps to research or purchase products (11.3%). One in 10 (13.7%) will purchase a Father’s Day gift via their smartphone.

Source: retailingtoday.com

Consumer Confidence Index Declines Again

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^®, which had declined slightly in April, fell further in May. The Index now stands at 64.9 (1985=100), down from 68.7 in April. The Expectations Index declined to 77.6 from 80.4, while the Present Situation Index decreased to 45.9 from 51.2 last month.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: "Consumer Confidence fell in May, following a slight decline in April. Consumers were less positive about current business and labor market conditions, and they were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. However, consumers were more upbeat about their income prospects, which should help sustain spending. Taken together, the retreat in the Present Situation Index and softening in consumer expectations suggest that the pace of economic growth in the months ahead may moderate."

Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions deteriorated in May. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 34.3 percent from 33.2 percent, while those saying business conditions are "good" decreased to 13.6 percent from 15.5 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was also less favorable. Those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased to 41.0 percent from 38.1 percent, while those stating jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 7.9 percent from 8.4 percent.

Consumers have also grown less upbeat about the short-term outlook. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 16.6 percent from 18.5 percent. However, those anticipating business conditions will worsen decreased to 13.1 percent from 14.2 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less positive. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 15.8 percent from 16.9 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 21.0 percent from 18.4 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes improved to 15.2 percent from 13.9 percent.

Source:  The Conference Board

Consumer Confidence Index Virtually Unchanged

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index^®, which had declined slightly in March, was virtually unchanged in April. The Index now stands at 69.2 (1985=100), down slightly from 69.5 in March. The Expectations Index declined to 81.1 from 82.5, while the Present Situation Index improved to 51.4 from 49.9 last month.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged in April, following a modest decline in March. As was the case last month, the slight dip was prompted by a moderation in consumers’ short-term outlook, while their assessment of current conditions continued to improve. Overall, consumers are more upbeat about the state of the economy, but they remain cautiously optimistic.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in April. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased to 15.3 percent from 14.3 percent.  However, those claiming business conditions are “bad” edged up to 33.5 percent from 33.2 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market remained mixed. Those stating jobs are “hard to get” declined to 37.5 percent from 40.7 percent, while those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 8.4 percent from 9.0 percent.

Consumers were, once again, slightly less optimistic about the short-term outlook. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 18.8 percent from 19.3 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen increased to 14.2 percent from 13.7 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was less upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 16.9 percent from 17.4 percent, however, those anticipating fewer jobs decreased to 18.0 percent from 18.5 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 14.0 percent from 15.5 percent.

Source: The Conference Board

Consumer Comfort Index rises to match four-year high

A report released by Bloomberg showed that household confidence improved last week to match the highest level in four years. 

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index improved in the week ended April 15 to match the highest level in four years as more Americans said their finances were in better shape.  The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index measures Americans' perceptions on three important variables: the state of the economy, personal finances and whether it's a good time to buy needed goods or services. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 31.4 in the period ended April 15, compared with minus 32.8 over the previous seven days. The reading equaled that from two weeks earlier as the best since March 2008.

Despite the strong showing, the monthly expectations measure fell from a one-year high, showing ongoing concerns that too many Americans are still unemployed.

“The uneven nature of the recovery will likely continue to restrain the type of improvement in consumer sentiment that one would traditionally observe at this point in the expansionary cycle,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York.

Jobless applications fell by 2,000 to 386,000 in the week ended April 14 from a revised 388,000 the prior period that was higher than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop to 370,000.

The positive news comes on the heels of this week’s announcements that retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.8% in March. The gain was almost three times as large as projected by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and followed a 1% advance in February.

Source:  retailingtoday.com, bloomberg.com

Consumer Confidence Down In March

The Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board fell slightly in March to 70.2 from 71.6 in February. 

"Consumer Confidence pulled back slightly in March, after rising sharply in February,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “The moderate decline was due solely to a less favorable short-term outlook, while consumers’ assessment of current conditions, on the other hand, continued to improve.”

The Present Situation Index increased to 51.0 from 46.4, its highest level in three and a half years. The results, Franco said, suggest that despite this month's dip in confidence, consumers feel the economy is not losing momentum.

The Expectations Index declined to 83.0 from 88.4 in February as consumers became less optimistic about the short-term outlook. The proportion of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 19.2% from 18.9%. However, those anticipating business conditions will worsen also rose, to 13.5% from 11.8%.

Source: retailingtoday.com

Brighter Days Ahead for Retail in 2010

Retail economists now predict solid growth for 2010. The International Council of Shopping Centers projects annual sales will increase 3% to 3.5%, the biggest jump since 2006. "It's a story of the turning of the corner for the retail industry," said Michael Niemira, the group's chief economist. "We are probably now outside of the recession, and getting the first slow recovery."

"There is more stability and more visibility," Macy's Chief Executive Terry Lundgren said in an interview. "Last year, it was like we were all falling off a cliff, grabbing for vines to catch on to something, because we couldn't really see what was happening."

The less-is-more strategy is expected to continue well into this year as merchants cautiously move forward in light of continuing high unemployment and a recent spike in energy prices that is reducing consumers' disposable income.

Maintaining high fill rates and carefully watching inventory on hand will be critical for success in 2010. EDI 852 provides the raw materials necessary to analyze sales and inventory on hand, however vendors will need to be diligent in analyzing and working with replenishment managers to ensure out of stocks do not occur.

Take action now:
1. Identify your A and B stores by sales volume.
2. Perform an out of stock analysis for A and B stores for your top SKU’s.
3. Review your fill rate for these stores/SKU’s and take any corrective actions necessary.
4. Work with your replenishment manager to ensure order min/max will support expected sales and avoid out of stocks.

Additional resources:
· Detailed instructions for store analysis and out of stock analysis can be found here
· Tools for analyzing EDI 852 can be found here

The Conference Board: Consumers to cut back on gift spending

NEW YORK (Nov. 23) According to The Conference Board, U.S. households are expected to spend an average of $390 on Christmas gifts this holiday season, down from last year's estimate of $418.

"Consumers are approaching the holiday season very cautiously," says Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Job losses and uncertainty about the future are making for a very frugal shopper. Retailers will need to be quite creative to entice consumers to spend, both in stores and online this holiday season, as consumers most certainly will expect major markdowns and bargains."

The top spenders will be New England households (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont) who intend to spend an average of $534. Lowest Christmas spending will be in the Mountain region (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming) where consumers intend to spend $332 on Christmas gifts.

Only 26% of all households intend to spend $500 or more on Christmas gifts, down slightly from 27% last year. Among other households, 35% plan to spend $200 to $500, down from 37% last year, and 39% are planning to spend less than $200, up from 35% in 2008.

Consumers will also approach online holiday shopping very cautiously, holding off on big ticket items and holding out for major incentives like free shipping and discounts, according to The Consumer Internet Barometer, a separate survey produced quarterly by The Conference Board and TNS. The Consumer Internet Barometer surveys 10,000 households across the country and tracks who's doing what on the Internet.

"Even as the economy is starting to show signs of improvement, consumers are taking a cautious approach to their purchase decisions, focusing on lower ticket items that clearly communicate value," notes Bridget Armstrong, head of Consumer Sector at TNS.

Budget-friendly items appear at the top of consumers' online holiday shopping lists. The top categories include books, apparel/footwear, toys/games and movies/DVDs. The most preferred shopping sites are those operated by online retailers such as Amazon.com. Retail stores and catalog operators such as Walmart.com or BestBuy.com are a close second.

About 90% of online consumers cite free shipping as a major incentive. More than two out of three said special deals and offers not available in stores as well as coupons and discounts would encourage them to spend more.